Will Eric Reid fall to the Lions in the 3rd round?
Jeff Risdon, DLD Editor
I included a couple of plausible trades in this one. They are indicated with an asterisk. Obviously the next couple of weeks of free agency will change some needs and potential targets for some teams, but not as dramatically as many might think.
As always, this is my projection of what teams might do in the given situation. It does not represent the choices I would make in the same situations or reflect my player ratings/grades. Also, my goal beyond the first 20 or so picks is much more about player and draft slot rather than team and player.
1.Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, T, Texas A&M. The release of Eric Winston made this a near-given. It could still be Eric Fisher, but most everyone would be surprised if it’s not an offensive tackle.
2.Jacksonville Jaguars: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama. The Jaguars have any number of options to fill very sore needs: pass rush, secondary, offensive line. In this scenario they take the top playmaker in the secondary with Milliner.
3.Oakland Raiders: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia. This is based on the tenuous status of Carson Palmer, who is just as likely to be released as he is starting for Oakland at quarterback. Smith offers genuine long-term promise at a position that has been in constant flux for well over a decade.
4.Philadelphia Eagles: Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon. It’s quite convenient to project Jordan to reunite with his college coach Chip Kelly in Philly, but it makes sense from a pragmatic point of view as well. The Eagles are transforming to a 3-4 and need outside backers, and it allows them to offer up some attractive young DEs (Graham, Curry) as trade bait.
5.Detroit Lions: Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU. Given this board the choice here is Eric Fisher or Ziggy Ansah. There is a better chance to get quality offensive line help later in the draft than there is the impact that Ansah can have on the defense. That’s exactly the way new front office guy Brian Xanders thinks.
6.*San Diego Chargers (from CLE): Eric Fisher, T, Central Michigan. The Chargers trade their 1st round pick (#11 overall) their 3rd round pick (#78 overall) and their 3rd & 5th round picks in 2014 to Cleveland to move up. They do so to take Fisher, who I am reliably told is the top offensive player on their board, before the OL-needy Cardinals take him at the 7 spot.
7.Arizona Cardinals: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida. Everyone thinks the Cardinals are going OL or QB, but in this scenario Arizona throws the curveball and upgrades the defensive line. Floyd can play the 5-technique opposite Calais Campbell and help keep the aging Darnell Dockett fresh, giving the Cards a fearsome, athletic front line to handle the athletic QBs in their division.
8.Buffalo Bills: Matt Barkley, QB, USC. I’ll frame this selection in this way: Like Barkley this year, Jake Locker went into the 2011 draft season as the early #1 overall pick. He was often terrible at Washington that year but only fell to 8th overall. Barkley doesn’t have Locker’s downfield arm but does every other aspect of QB play demonstrably better. He’s not falling any farther than Jake Locker did, folks, like it or not.
9.New York Jets: Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU. Perimeter pass rusher has been high amongst the Jets needs for too long now. Mingo has potential game-changing ability with his speed off the edge and could thrive in a more aggressive scheme like Rex Ryan’s.
10.Tennessee Titans: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State. I vacillated back and forth between OL and DL help; the Titans need new starters at just about every position on both lines over the next two offseasons. Werner is a unique talent that will do a lot for the defense besides rushing the passer, which others will do better. OL makes a lot of sense here too.
11.*Cleveland Browns (from SD): Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas. Vaccaro is part of the nouveau “heavy nickel” defensive back, a base safety that slides to slot corner against flexed out tight ends and slot receivers. His positional discipline is questionable but the Browns sorely need a player with his abilities.
12.Miami Dolphins: Lane Johnson, T, Oklahoma. With Jake Long departing they are left with the hopelessly overwhelmed Jonathan Martin and Jets castoff Patrick Martin as their projected starting tackles. The converted QB Johnson is only going to get better and he’s already miles better than anyone they’ve got.
13.Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah. The DT spot next to Gerald McCoy has been a black hole, and the massive Star can fill that right away. He has great power and quickness for his size, and that will make McCoy all that much more effective. His heart concern could cause a fall, and the Bucs could look CB or even TE here.
14.Carolina Panthers: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri. I sense that if Sheldon Richardson is on the board here, Jerry Richardson will take about 30 seconds before ordering him to be the pick for his Panthers. Perfect need/value fit, but a WR or G will be tempting as well.
15.New Orleans Saints: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia. The move to the 3-4 means the Saints must add a stand-up pass rusher, and Jones brings sizzle to that role. It’s at this point I remind readers that this mock does not necessarily reflect what picks I would make in the given situations, and that admonition at this point is absolutely not coincidental.
16.St. Louis Rams: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama. They need a tackle more than a guard, but this is too early for Menelik Watson, a player I know they like a lot. Warmack can step right in as a devastating, physical run blocker. Jeff Fisher has built his teams with guys like that for two decades. A safety like Jonathan Cyprien wouldn’t surprise me here.
